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Photo Bonanza
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Lon gives us his Natsu Basho summary, along with the henka sightings results

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Mikko Mattila lets you know what is going on down below the curtain

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Readers’ Letters
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Sumo Quiz
The Quizmaster
Answer the Qs and win yourself next basho’s banzuke.

relevant. We are now focusing on the differences in the henka win percentage as they relate to the margin of the “yes” votes. First, the win percentage of the henka perpetrators for henka validated by Yes Vote Margins of 2-1, 3-1, and by Unanimous Yes Votes:

Yes Vote MarginWin Pct.
2-165
3-169
Unanimous80







So the win rate continues to be higher for those bouts with a higher Yes Vote Margin, and in fact, the win percentages in these categories are nearly identical to those published in February. Somehow, this makes me feel warm and fuzzy oh well, just live with the reality that ‘warm and fuzzy’ to a stat-o-phile can be hard for humans who get out once in a while to relate to.

Now, let's go on to the final sub-category, and that is only for the henka bouts that attracted at least ten votes. The reason this sub-category was created in February is that – at that time
– there were a fair amount of henka that were validated with just a few votes, and I thought that having just five or six people voting didn't really constitute an authoritative consensus. As voting has picked up in the last two basho, this sub-category may (hopefully) soon become extinct. Anyway, here are the results, again divided by Yes Vote Margins of 2-1, 3-1, and Unanimous Yes Votes (here, Unanimous includes those henka with just a single dissenting vote – the thinking being there may be someone out there who'll vote no just on principle):

Yes Vote MarginWin Pct.
2-175
3-171
Unanimous92







As in February, the win rate is even higher when the bouts with the higher number of votes and the higher Yes Vote Margins are segmented out, and again, the win rate in the 2-1 and 3-1 Yes Vote categories are nearly identical (feeling warm here again). Recall that in February, the win rate in the Unanimous sub-category here was 100% (10 out of 10), but now there has
been one loser (speaking just statistically), and that was when Kyokushuzan failed to fool Miyabiyama on day 13 of the just completed Natsu basho. So the record for that sub-category is now 12 winners out of 13 henka, or 92 per cent.

So as in February, using these statistics as a basis – at least in my opinion – it appears that at this early juncture, the connection between the use of henka and the probability of winning may be summed up by saying that, as the henka becomes more brazen, the likelihood of winning goes up.

As stated earlier, one year's worth of data isn't enough for this conclusion, or any of the others, to be considered rooted in authority, but one must start somewhere and so here's where we are after a year's time. Again, thank you to everyone who has stepped up, pitched in, and answered the call by casting their Henka Sightings votes over the past year. None of this would be possible without you, the voters – so arigatoo and hang in there!

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